Well,
it's not looking good right now in South Ossetia, a republic that
Georgia and most of the rest of the world recognizes as part of
Georgia, but which the South Ossetian and Russian governments consider
independent. Russian troops have been stationed in South Ossetia for
years, where the Russian rouble is the currency and where most people
have been given Russian citizenship. Today, some of their soldiers were
killed when Georgian troops attacked in an apparent effort to retake
the region. Russian troops then responded in force, sending tanks across the border.
I won't go into details about what is actually happening there, since
the facts are in dispute and my only access to news right now is
Russian television. However, I can make a few observations.

First
of all, it is no small coincidence that Russian media has been
comparing this conflict so frequently to the breakup of Yugoslavia.
Indeed, Russia has been following a policy not unlike the policies
followed by the European Union and the United States vis-a-vis
Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. Russia recognizes South Ossetian
independence, and for years has stationed its soldiers there as
"peacekeepers." The message seems to be pretty clear: what's good for
the goose is good for the gander. If the United States and Europe are
able to detach Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, and—most recently—Kosova
from Yugoslavia, then Russia can detach South Ossetia from Georgia.

Secondly,
considerable bitterness towards the United States is being exhibited on
television. State-run television in Russia has commented a number of
times on the presence of a large number of retired American
generals—many of whom, it is emphasized, had experience fighting
American wars in the Balkans in the 1990s—operating as military
consultants in Georgia. Russian television has also been complaining
about "propaganda" in the American and British media coverage of the
war, pointing out that CNN, the BBC, and other news organs have
emphasized the story of Russian tanks entering South Ossetia, rather
than the fact that Georgian troops had entered South Ossetia first.

Thirdly,
as cloyingly patriotic and ridiculously one-sided as Russian state
television has been during this crisis, what I find most depressing
about listening to those hacks is the extent to which they remind me of
the their American counterparts. It's one thing for stooges working in
government-owned media in Russia to act this way, but what's the excuse
of the American media?
I
expect to see a lot of anti-Russian vitriol in the American media in
the upcoming days. Indeed, I'm already seeing a lot of anti-American
vitriol in the Russian media. My main hope is that the vitriol comes to
an end and people can go back to their lives.
Also—maybe
I've just been brainwashed by Russian media, but I don't believe that
Saakashvili would have done this without an American green light. It's
hard to believe that Washington could exercise such bad judgment, but I
wouldn't put anything past this administration.
One
thing that everyone has to keep in mind is that the United States and
Russia have, for fifteen years, been fighting proxy wars for influence
in the Balkans and the former Soviet Union. While in the United States
we view American policies vis-a-vis the former Yugoslavia as having
been undertaken in the interests of protecting human rights and
national rights of self-determination, Russians tend to see American
actions in this regard as cynical acts of naked aggression.
Sound
familiar? If it does, it's because that's how most of the American
media will no doubt portray Russian actions in South Ossetia. I'm not
saying that what the Russians are doing is right—but why should
Slovenian or Croatian self-determination in 1993—or Kosovar
independence in 2008—be more inherently just than South Ossetian
self-determination? On the other hand, if Russia is allowed to defend
its national integrity in Chechnya, why can't Georgia do the same thing
in South Ossetia?
There
are, of course, double standards on both sides. Russia and the United
States are both following what their leaders consider to be their
national self-interest, and neither side has exactly cornered the
market on moral international behavior. Everyone should therefore do
themselves a favor by not getting carried away with their rhetoric and
doing their best to work this problem out before things get out of
hand.
I guess it's a good thing I haven't bought my Moscow-Tbilisi plane ticket yet.
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