Tuesday, September 21, 2010 

There's an article on the recent Turkish referendum in the "Eurasia Daily Monitor," a web publication of the (at least formerly, it seems) CIA-funded Jamestown Foundation.

The article, written by Jamestown Turkey hand Saban Kardas, argues that "for a great portion of Turkish voters the content of the constitutional changes was less important than their party affiliation."

The results can be interpreted as a reaffirmation of domestic support for the AKP’s tenure in power. This success represents the sixth major electoral victory for the AKP under Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since 2002, the AKP has won two parliamentary elections and two municipal elections, and managed to pass constitutional amendment packages in two referendums. Following the latest result, many observers expect the AKP to win the next national elections slated for 2011. With this unprecedented track record, the AKP machinery has emerged almost as an invincible force in the Turkish political scene, raising the question as to how it will use its power.

Interestingly, Kardas makes this point immediately after pointing out that the AKP leadership itself had not presented a 'Yes' vote as a vote for the AKP but rather as a vote against the military's role in Turkish politics.


Whether one voted 'no' (hayir) or 'yes' (evet), my sense is that not everybody saw the referendum simply as a vote for or against the AKP

Without question, the big 'Yes' vote (58% in favor with about 42% opposed) on Sunday is a big victory for the AKP. It's also a validation of the type of campaign the AKP waged, which appealed to people's growing distaste in Turkey for military interference in politics.

Given the fact that the AKP received less than 39% of the vote in nationwide municipal elections held in March of 2009, it seems likely that a lot of people voting 'Yes' last week did so despite the fact that they do not support the AKP.

What the opposition CHP needs to do is stop looking like they are waiting for the military to 'solve' the AKP. Instead, the CHP needs to find a way of tapping into anti-military sentiment by arguing that not only is military involvement in politics problematic, but so is the authoritarian nature of the AKP.

But maybe doing that would require the CHP to have an honest conversation about the nature of Turkish politics—something that I frankly doubt they're willing to engage in.

Anyway, the Jamestown piece seems odd (their stuff often does), but it nevertheless asks the million dollar question: how big an AKP victory was the referendum? 

What do you think?