Sunday, June 12, 2011

No surprise here. As everyone has been predicting for weeks, it looks like the AKP will have a big majority, but not enough seats (367) to write a new constitution unilaterally (i.e., without putting it up to a referendum).

Here are real time results from the elections.  

The AKP does, however, appear very close to the 330 seats needed to pass a constitutional package in parliament (before holding a referendum).

While the AKP seems to be just shy of 330 seats (currently they are at 326 seats), political horse-trading to come up with the extra four seats they need to send the constitution to a referendum should give them the votes they need in parliament.

For all intents and purposes, the AKP can make a new constitution without much input from the main opposition parties—as long as they can peel off four deputies from somewhere.

However, nothing can be done without a referendum approving it first. The AKP received, according to current numbers, just under 50% of the popular vote. Will these numbers hold up for a constitutional referendum?

Now the fun really begins...