September 27, 2008
Nobody's talking about it in the
United States, but a serious political crisis has broken out in
Ukraine. Those of you keeping score might remember that in 2004 the Orange Revolution brought a pro-Western government
to power in Kyiv, and since then Ukraine and Georgia have emerged as
the two most important allies of the United States among republics of
the former Soviet Union which have not already joined NATO.
The
crisis has been brought on by a feud between two of America's most
important supporters in the country, President Viktor Yushchenko and
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. On Wednesday, Tymoshenko joined forces with Viktor Yanukovich
(who was the Moscow-sponsored opponent of Yushchenko in the 2004
elections) in supporting a measure to limit the president's powers. The
rumors are now that Tymoshenko and Yanukovich will form a coalition
government with Tymoshenko as Prime Minister.
Yushchenko's supporters have accused Tymoshenko of treason
and Yushchenko himself has threatened to dissolve parliament and call
new elections--a move which seems unlikely given his party's own weak
standing in opinion polls.
All
of this comes at a time when Washington finds itself in an increasingly
defensive position in Eurasia. After the heady days of 2004-2005 and
the installation of pro-American governments in Georgia and Ukraine,
the Bush administration's goals of incorporating both countries into
NATO have already contributed to the partitioning of Georgia and risk
creating a similarly volatile situation in Ukraine, where the idea of
joining the alliance is anathema to the large Russian-speaking
population of the country.
As I argued in a recent posting,
the Bush administration's obsession with extending NATO membership to
these countries is self-defeating. In Ukraine, the prospect of joinging
the EU would be a far less divisive and equally effective means of
guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial integrity. Indeed, Washington's
current plans of putting Ukraine and Georgia on the fast track to
membership in NATO could very well lead to the very breakup of Ukraine
that Washington is seeking to avoid by promoting its membership.
Particularly in today's heated atmosphere, Russians in
Ukraine--particularly in the the Crimea--are simply not going to stand
for it.
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