Friday, May 2, 2014
I listened to an interesting interview on NPR today with Alexander Vershbow, the deputy secretary-general of NATO. Vesrhbow mentioned that Russia is now an 'adversary' of the United States, and delivered a measured discussion of current events, I thought. One point that Vershbow seemed to be implying was that the Kremlin's goal is Ukraine, not just eastern Ukraine.
If that's what he was saying, I agree. My guess is that, if Putin could have any result he wanted at this point, it would be to bring to power a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.
What Putin desires even more than the factories of eastern Ukraine are friendly satellites. He’d like to install a stooge government
in Kyiv, and make sure as many of the non-NATO countries are as
friendly as possible. I don’t think the goal is necessarily to conquer
and incorporate, but rather to develop a coterie of like-minded
authoritarian allies. Belarus has, for the most part, had that
relationship with Russia for all of Putin’s time in politics. As Vershbow points out, Central Asia is also a possibility. This expanded influence in the available (ie, non-NATO) territories of the former USSR, I think, is more valuable to Russia than eastern Ukraine.
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