Friday, May 22, 2015
Life has been proceeding apace up here in the northern Rockies, where upcoming travel plans have sent the Borderlands Lodge staff into a flurry of preparations. Mainly, I'm just trying to find ways of keeping my backpack from turning into a bookmobile.
Uncle Gabor and I are preparing for our upcoming night flight
While there's still a fair bit of work to be done, don't think that I've forgotten your N & P. As a matter of fact, we've got some of both...
Mission Confusion in Syria
The US continues, it seems, to be simultaneously fighting the Islamic State and the Assad regime in Syria. This is interesting, mainly, because these two sides are also fighting each other.
The Obama administration's dual policy of fighting the Assad regime and ISIS simultaneously has contributed to the making of a busy week for the US in Syria. On the one hand, there was an announcement last Saturday morning that US special operations forces had killed a senior Islamic State leader inside Syria. I'm guessing they didn't bother to get their passports stamped.
Meanwhile, the US is engaging in a train-and-equip program with the government of Turkey for Syrian fighters looking to fight the Islamic state. Or else fight the Syrian government. Or maybe both?
It depends who you ask. Whereas the Obama administration apparently wanted the forces trained by the US-Turkish teams to be used to fight the Islamic State only, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu thinks otherwise:
Kerry in Sochi
There was plenty of criticism this past week regarding John Kerry's brief visit to Sochi, where the US Secretary of State met with Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials. It's not surprising that the Wall Street Journal groused about Kerry being "so nice to Vladimir Putin," but even the NY Times called the meeting "a diplomatic victory" for for the Russian president. An editorial on CNN dismissed the visit altogether as an exercise in "pointless diplomacy."
But what exactly did Putin "win?" at the Sochi meeting? Yes, Kerry did raise the prospect of the US and EU lifting sanctions on Russia. But EU sanctions are due to end in July, and there's a lot less support in Europe for continuing with such measures. I think the Obama administration is simply recognizing that, barring unforeseen developments, the sanctions are going to end soon. They're trying to get ahead of this by extracting whatever concessions they can from Russia while they still have some leverage.
Ultimately, however, it's important to recognize that Ukraine means a lot more to Moscow than it does to the United States. No matter how far Washington is willing to escalate matters with Moscow, the Kremlin will be willing to go farther. "Winning" in Ukraine, as far as the United States is concerned, should be about working out a longer-term understanding with Russia over the division of influence in former Soviet space.
All in all, it was a pretty good weekend for Putin. While in Sochi, the Russian president also participated in an exhibition hockey match. Playing alongside former NHL greats, Putin scored an amazing 8 goals. After the game, the Russian president further impressed onlookers by tearing the puck into tiny pieces with his bare hands.
One thing seems certain: the Russian national team could have benefited from the president's goal-scoring prowess the other day, when the Canadian national team pasted the Russians 6-1 at the world championships in Prague.
Beyond hockey, however, there's a more serious question here regarding the question of US-Russian relations more generally. The US and Russia need, I think, to figure out a civilized way of dividing up influence in former Soviet space.
The US and EU have expanded their influence considerably since the end of the Cold War in 1989. All of the former Warsaw Pact countries from central and eastern Europe (the GDR, Poland, Hungary, Czech-Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria) are now in NATO and the European Union. So are three former republics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) of the USSR. The richest and most economically valuable regions of former Soviet domination are now securely locked into the American and European spheres of influence. Washington and Brussels are already playing with house money at this point.
Shouldn't the government of Ukraine be allowed to decide for itself whether or not it wants to be allied with Russia, the US, or nobody? In an ideal world: of course. In the world we live in, however, that's not necessarily going to happen.
At this point, maybe the most that the US should be hoping for in Ukraine would be the "Finlandization" of the country. As the term "Finlandization" suggests, this wouldn't exactly be the first time that a country in Europe was obliged to defer to a powerful neighbor with respect to the formulation of foreign policy. Better the Findlandization of Ukraine, I think, than its Yugoslavification.
Putin's Disunited Nation?
And still more about Russia! On Tuesday of this past week I saw an interesting NY Times op-ed written by someone whose work I've admired for a long time: Loyola-Chicago university professor Michael Khodarkovsky.
Here's the beginning of the piece:
With dozens of mini-republics and other federal units created around non-Russian populations located within Russia, messing around with the mini-republics of your neighbors--like the Crimea, or South Ossetia, for instance, as I first wrote about back in 2008--could eventually turn into a dangerous game indeed.
On the Road
As I mentioned earlier, the borderlands staff has been working feverishly in recent days, preparing my valise and carriage for an upcoming journey. I too have been busy, trying to take care of business here in the greater Gallatin county regional area place.
The weather has been rather blustery here lately in the northern Rockies. Mist envelops the mountains. When the clouds part, however, they reveal a brilliant blue sky against bright white peaks. I therefore felt inspired the other day to make some coffee, pick up a bagel, and drive around for a few hours to admire the scenery.
.
Just as I'm preparing to leave, the weather in Montana is starting to get amazing. I'm sorry to be missing it for now, but I guess that's the price you pay for being a Turk across empires.
***
109 libraries can't be wrong! Ask yours to order a copy of Turks Across Empires at the OUP website or from Amazon.
***
More links, commentary and photographs available poolside at the Borderlands Lounge.
Life has been proceeding apace up here in the northern Rockies, where upcoming travel plans have sent the Borderlands Lodge staff into a flurry of preparations. Mainly, I'm just trying to find ways of keeping my backpack from turning into a bookmobile.
Uncle Gabor and I are preparing for our upcoming night flight
While there's still a fair bit of work to be done, don't think that I've forgotten your N & P. As a matter of fact, we've got some of both...
Mission Confusion in Syria
The US continues, it seems, to be simultaneously fighting the Islamic State and the Assad regime in Syria. This is interesting, mainly, because these two sides are also fighting each other.
The Obama administration's dual policy of fighting the Assad regime and ISIS simultaneously has contributed to the making of a busy week for the US in Syria. On the one hand, there was an announcement last Saturday morning that US special operations forces had killed a senior Islamic State leader inside Syria. I'm guessing they didn't bother to get their passports stamped.
 |
| Recent map showing holdings of Syrian gov. (red), IS (grey), FSA (green) and Kurds (yellow), among numerous others |
Meanwhile, the US is engaging in a train-and-equip program with the government of Turkey for Syrian fighters looking to fight the Islamic state. Or else fight the Syrian government. Or maybe both?
It depends who you ask. Whereas the Obama administration apparently wanted the forces trained by the US-Turkish teams to be used to fight the Islamic State only, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu thinks otherwise:
Çavuşoğlu replied that the first group composed of 300 rebels arrived on May 9 and their training started last week. He added that the vetting process was implemented together with Turkey and the U.S., which had been in longstanding disagreement on the target of the program. Washington wants the rebels to fight only against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), while Ankara wants them to struggle against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
“Of course at the moment the first and foremost target is ISIL. However they will struggle for the stability, security and peace of Syria. Hence, they will struggle also against al-Assad’s forces. We have reached consensus on that,” Çavuşoğlu says.I wonder: is it really in anyone's interest for the US and Turkey to be sending still more fighters into Syria? As bad as things are now there, I think the violence there will increase exponentially if the Assad regime falls. Moreover, at a time when Assad's principle opposition in the country is made up of the Islamic State, it's seems hard to believe that ISIS wouldn't benefit from the emergence of this new US-Turkish force of fighters against Assad.
Kerry in Sochi
There was plenty of criticism this past week regarding John Kerry's brief visit to Sochi, where the US Secretary of State met with Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials. It's not surprising that the Wall Street Journal groused about Kerry being "so nice to Vladimir Putin," but even the NY Times called the meeting "a diplomatic victory" for for the Russian president. An editorial on CNN dismissed the visit altogether as an exercise in "pointless diplomacy."
 |
| No word yet on what Kerry's hotel was like |
But what exactly did Putin "win?" at the Sochi meeting? Yes, Kerry did raise the prospect of the US and EU lifting sanctions on Russia. But EU sanctions are due to end in July, and there's a lot less support in Europe for continuing with such measures. I think the Obama administration is simply recognizing that, barring unforeseen developments, the sanctions are going to end soon. They're trying to get ahead of this by extracting whatever concessions they can from Russia while they still have some leverage.
Ultimately, however, it's important to recognize that Ukraine means a lot more to Moscow than it does to the United States. No matter how far Washington is willing to escalate matters with Moscow, the Kremlin will be willing to go farther. "Winning" in Ukraine, as far as the United States is concerned, should be about working out a longer-term understanding with Russia over the division of influence in former Soviet space.
All in all, it was a pretty good weekend for Putin. While in Sochi, the Russian president also participated in an exhibition hockey match. Playing alongside former NHL greats, Putin scored an amazing 8 goals. After the game, the Russian president further impressed onlookers by tearing the puck into tiny pieces with his bare hands.
One thing seems certain: the Russian national team could have benefited from the president's goal-scoring prowess the other day, when the Canadian national team pasted the Russians 6-1 at the world championships in Prague.
 |
| Falling just shy of a triple hat-trick, Russia's president resolved to practice more and try harder next time |
Beyond hockey, however, there's a more serious question here regarding the question of US-Russian relations more generally. The US and Russia need, I think, to figure out a civilized way of dividing up influence in former Soviet space.
The US and EU have expanded their influence considerably since the end of the Cold War in 1989. All of the former Warsaw Pact countries from central and eastern Europe (the GDR, Poland, Hungary, Czech-Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria) are now in NATO and the European Union. So are three former republics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) of the USSR. The richest and most economically valuable regions of former Soviet domination are now securely locked into the American and European spheres of influence. Washington and Brussels are already playing with house money at this point.
Shouldn't the government of Ukraine be allowed to decide for itself whether or not it wants to be allied with Russia, the US, or nobody? In an ideal world: of course. In the world we live in, however, that's not necessarily going to happen.
At this point, maybe the most that the US should be hoping for in Ukraine would be the "Finlandization" of the country. As the term "Finlandization" suggests, this wouldn't exactly be the first time that a country in Europe was obliged to defer to a powerful neighbor with respect to the formulation of foreign policy. Better the Findlandization of Ukraine, I think, than its Yugoslavification.
Putin's Disunited Nation?
And still more about Russia! On Tuesday of this past week I saw an interesting NY Times op-ed written by someone whose work I've admired for a long time: Loyola-Chicago university professor Michael Khodarkovsky.
Here's the beginning of the piece:
During those tense days in early March when Vladimir Putin disappeared from public view, the Russian president issued only one official statement: He instructed his prime minister to prepare a blueprint for a new federal agency that would work toward “consolidating the unity of the multiethnic nation of the Russian Federation.”
The move passed relatively unnoticed, but it raises provocative questions. Why suddenly create a new arm of government when funding for other departments is being frozen or cut? And why did the choice to lead the agency fall upon Igor Barinov, a member of Parliament and a retired colonel of the Federal Security Service with experience in special operations in Chechnya and counterterrorism?
It's a convincing argument, and one that connects to a point that I've been hammering away at here for some time: the fact that Putin's adventures in Ukraine could end up bringing on unintended consequences within Russia.For Mr. Putin’s Kremlin, religious and ethnic diversity remains a troubling security concern. The new federal agency is charged with solving one of the major challenges of the Putin era: how to mold a unified Russia from such a vastly diverse population while Mr. Putin pursues his neo-imperial ambition to recoup large swathes of the old Soviet Union.
 |
| Republics of the Russian Federation |
With dozens of mini-republics and other federal units created around non-Russian populations located within Russia, messing around with the mini-republics of your neighbors--like the Crimea, or South Ossetia, for instance, as I first wrote about back in 2008--could eventually turn into a dangerous game indeed.
On the Road
As I mentioned earlier, the borderlands staff has been working feverishly in recent days, preparing my valise and carriage for an upcoming journey. I too have been busy, trying to take care of business here in the greater Gallatin county regional area place.
The weather has been rather blustery here lately in the northern Rockies. Mist envelops the mountains. When the clouds part, however, they reveal a brilliant blue sky against bright white peaks. I therefore felt inspired the other day to make some coffee, pick up a bagel, and drive around for a few hours to admire the scenery.
 |
| Good morning, Montana! |
 |
| Driving north of town |
 |
| On my way out toward Bridger Bowl... |
 |
| On the Madison River, south of Norris |
 |
| On the way home |
.
Just as I'm preparing to leave, the weather in Montana is starting to get amazing. I'm sorry to be missing it for now, but I guess that's the price you pay for being a Turk across empires.
***
109 libraries can't be wrong! Ask yours to order a copy of Turks Across Empires at the OUP website or from Amazon.
***
More links, commentary and photographs available poolside at the Borderlands Lounge.
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