Friday, September 19, 2025
While everybody in the US was busy screaming at one another, Russian fighter jets today entered the airspace of NATO member Estonia.
Less than two weeks ago Russian drones violated Poland's airspace, so I'm guessing Moscow wasn't very intimidated by Washington's (non) response.
If I were Vladimir Putin, after making a deal with the US over Ukraine, at some point I'd try to push the envelope re Estonia. Certainly not in the form of an invasion (and trigger a NATO response) but rather through testing the waters by making demands. Just to see if there's any chance that the US might waver in sticking up for Estonia.
I've written about this before and it's certainly a long shot, but keep your eyes on Narva all the same.
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Also see:
Looking for the Long-Term in Putin's Moves
Moscow Recognizes Two Breakaway Republics: Why do this?
The Monroe Doctrine, Putin, and Post-Soviet Space: Don't Muddy the Waters

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